UK v Spain

Being in Spain the other day made me realise that while the UK property market has taken a battering since the end of 2007, albeit with the recent illiquid recovery, Spain is nursing a much more painful headache. Simple demand-supply stats tell you the story....

Being in Spain the other day made me realise that while the UK property market has taken a battering since the end of 2007, albeit with the recent illiquid recovery, Spain is nursing a much more painful headache. Simple demand-supply stats tell you the story. The UK needs 250,000 units of new housing a year to keep pace with population and demographic changes and dilapidation - at the nadir of the property bust production bottomed at under 100,000.

Spain's official stats underplay their problems. Reliable sources in the industry there tell me that sales are running at 300,000 a year (max) but that vacant and unsold stock stands at 3million units, and this excludes land with planning permission and half-completed units.

There will be pockets of the market that will buck the trend as macro stats are never spread evenly but tend to cluster. However, it is hard to see a return of the market magic in Spain this side of the Rio Olympics.

Still, smart to buy aggressively below market value (50%) and hold.